Sterling continues to incrementally edge lower versus the euro, partially driven by the large drop in UK inflation to 4.6% seen last week, which has re-shaped the 2024 interest rate expectations. This week sees a healthy data schedule, with Purchasing Managers Index the key focus for both the UK and Europe.
Sterling forged a fresh high in the new uptrend, predominantly boosted by a much weaker dollar, whilst absorbing a significant fall in UK headline inflation to 4.6%, a figure even lower than market expectations (4.7%). This week’s PMI data will be a key temperature check on services and manufacturing sectors, but even weak numbers are unlikely to de-rail this new uptrend condition.
The euro enjoyed further gains fueled by a meaningful dollar unwind as lower than expected US inflation figures drove dollar weakness. Despite a light European data schedule, German economic sentiment data beat expectations, and flash GDP data came in line with expectations at -0.1% QoQ.