FX Majors Weekly Report

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Published date: 15 April 2024


After a few weeks of very light scheduled UK data, this week is littered with key releases which will have a meaningful bearing on the pound; the wage inflation component of the employment data on Tuesday, UK CPI (inflation) on Wednesday, and a measure of consumer activity from Friday’s retail sales data will all impact sterling, which has made headway against a weak euro in recent days.


Price action begins the week in ‘re-bound’ mode, having ended last week in ‘oversold’ territory after higher US inflation data drove significant dollar strength, breaking several technical chart levels along the way. There is a ‘full house’ of impactful UK data this week, and Wednesday’s UK CPI (inflation) is the most important and creates the chance for sterling fightback.


FX volatility picked up last week. The stubborn nature of US inflation (released last Wednesday at 3.5% YOY) delayed the chance of US rate cuts, prompting an influx of dollar buying, whilst just a day later, ECB President Lagarde gave a firm nod toward a June rate cut. For the first time in a long time, this was divergent – a hawkish Fed versus a dovish ECB; outcome EURUSD lower!

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