Published date: 10 February 2025
GBPEUR
GBP/EUR trades in a tight range, oscillating around the upside resistance level of 1.2032, following recent cuts from both the BoE and ECB. This week, speeches from both Lagarde and Schnabel (euro) and key MPC members, particularly Catherine Mann (sterling), are of interest as they will expand upon rate policy logic. UK GDP on Thursday will provide a fresh update on the much-politicised growth outlook.
GBPUSD
GBP/USD generally pushed higher last week as dollar strength faded due to some delays in imposing certain tariffs (CAN and MEX). Meanwhile, the BoE delivered the expected 0.25% rate cut. The BoE’s messaging acknowledged the weakening of UK productivity and used the term “careful” in its rate outlook. This week, Thursday’s GDP release will provide an update on the challenging growth trajectory, which the Labour government is keen to improve.
EURUSD
EUR/USD is now trading in a classic sideways consolidation, capped by the massive multiyear 1.0530 and well supported by 1.0222. As ever, Trump’s tariff news remains frequent and volatility-inducing, but markets are becoming slightly desensitised. Lagarde’s speech at the European Parliament early this week and Friday’s GDP release are of interest to the euro. Additionally, Wednesday’s US CPI (inflation) and Powell’s testimony to Congress are key market movers this week, alongside the tariff focus.